The latest research by one of London’s largest independent letting and sales agents, Benham and Reeves, has looked at the current struggle facing the nation’s first-time buyers (FTBs) and how this could increase over the next 34 years for those born today.
Benham and Reeves looked at the historic FTB property price data from the Land Registry and how this had changed month to month across each UK region and London borough, before projecting these monthly price changes forward 34 years to see what the average first-time buyer house price could hit for those born today.
With the average FTB now 34 years of age and today’s average FTB house price in England at £207,526, those born today could be looking at an average of £1,214,381 to get on the ladder in 34 years’ time.
This is, of course, much higher in the capital and despite the current market slowdown, the average FTB house price in London is now £412,679, although this could increase to a huge £4.5m over the next 34 years.
The data shows the average FTB house price would also top the £1m mark in the East of England and the South East, where the average house prices are currently £241,259 and £259,567 but could hit £1.9m by 2052.
The cheapest area to buy for FTBs born today would be the North East with a predicted price of £210,739, up from £110,645 today.
Looking into London, Kensington could be toppled as the capital’s most expensive borough, from an FTB perspective anyway. Despite the much higher price of property today, the slower rate of growth in FTB property prices in the last seven years means that Waltham Forest could overtake the PCL borough with an eye-watering average house price of £11.5m by 2052.
Kensington would still rank second with an average FTB house price of just under £8.4m, with Hackney (£6.8m), Westminster (£6.8m) and Haringey (£6.6m) all home to some of the highest prices when getting on the future ladder.
Hounslow has seen the slowest rate of growth in FTB house prices historically and ranks as the most affordable for an FTB born today, but even then they would need a whopping £2.8m to get on the ladder in 34 years’ time.
Benham and Reeves Director, Marc von Grundherr, commented:
“This research considers the ups and downs of the first-time buyer market historically and how things could play out for the generation of first-time buyers being born today if these trends were to repeat themselves.
Of course, it’s impossible to predict the future of the UK property market, particularly given the current turbulence caused by wider economic and political factors, however, this research acts as a warning of what could happen if we continue to fail in the delivery of affordable starter homes.
Not only does it show the huge jump in prices over previous years but how this could worsen further down the line.
While we hope that prices won’t reach these dizzying heights, we’ve certainly seen stranger things happen across the UK property market in the last 34 years, so who knows what the next 34 may bring.”
| Region | Average FTB House Price | ||
| Jan-12 | Dec-18 | Dec-52 | |
| London | £256,169 | £412,679 | £4,562,327 |
| East of England | £159,417 | £241,259 | £1,909,148 |
| South East | £173,993 | £259,567 | £1,907,352 |
| South West | £155,722 | £210,977 | £945,789 |
| East Midlands | £114,714 | £162,200 | £898,665 |
| West Midlands | £120,179 | £166,881 | £826,933 |
| Yorkshire and the Humber | £108,443 | £141,520 | £519,388 |
| North West | £105,748 | £138,288 | £514,293 |
| Wales | £109,838 | £139,487 | £443,639 |
| Scotland | £101,906 | £121,331 | £290,006 |
| North East | £97,313 | £110,645 | £210,739 |
| England | £145,361 | £207,526 | £1,214,381 |
| Borough | Average FTB House Price | ||
| Jan-12 | Dec-18 | Dec-52 | |
| Waltham Forest | £214,718 | £419,083 | £11,565,911 |
| Kensington and Chelsea | £810,493 | £1,207,159 | £8,378,019 |
| Hackney | £311,042 | £523,280 | £6,825,031 |
| Westminster | £603,575 | £895,636 | £6,819,146 |
| Haringey | £284,508 | £478,903 | £6,627,641 |
| Merton | £264,034 | £447,387 | £6,086,550 |
| Lewisham | £208,529 | £366,680 | £6,069,420 |
| Barking and Dagenham | £157,097 | £287,108 | £5,620,292 |
| City of London | £555,616 | £809,007 | £5,465,194 |
| Redbridge | £215,044 | £370,373 | £5,428,181 |
| Bexley | £175,586 | £310,631 | £5,264,108 |
| Lambeth | £278,869 | £453,022 | £5,251,664 |
| Greenwich | £210,418 | £352,939 | £4,677,804 |
| Camden | £488,702 | £706,879 | £4,575,705 |
| Enfield | £213,313 | £352,056 | £4,308,058 |
| Havering | £186,160 | £312,903 | £4,251,056 |
| Richmond | £348,635 | £528,510 | £4,247,587 |
| Hammersmith and Fulham | £437,937 | £641,542 | £4,245,412 |
| Southwark | £284,136 | £446,372 | £4,233,466 |
| Hillingdon | £208,684 | £341,413 | £4,030,421 |
| Bromley | £216,935 | £353,448 | £4,005,025 |
| Croydon | £182,269 | £302,758 | £3,987,306 |
| Newham | £211,778 | £342,734 | £3,919,806 |
| Sutton | £194,578 | £320,221 | £3,899,370 |
| Ealing | £273,773 | £426,620 | £3,860,887 |
| Kingston | £265,393 | £409,397 | £3,682,426 |
| Barnet | £294,548 | £446,786 | £3,585,976 |
| Tower Hamlets | £275,938 | £415,189 | £3,484,293 |
| Islington | £413,846 | £582,156 | £3,409,486 |
| Harrow | £251,169 | £386,293 | £3,350,252 |
| Wandsworth | £359,897 | £521,095 | £3,318,529 |
| Brent | £274,150 | £406,390 | £2,960,547 |
| Hounslow | £232,753 | £353,076 | £2,847,158 |
| London | £256,169 | £412,679 | £4,562,327 |
Source
- FTB house price data sourced from the Land Registry.
- Average FTB age of 34 sourced from Statista.
