tax stamp duty

What is expected for UK housing market after stamp duty holiday ends?

The stamp duty holiday deadline for properties valued at £500,000 or below is only a week away. How has this tax savings impacted the housing market and what is forecast for the coming months?

The temporary stamp duty holiday first came into effect on 8th July 2020 in England and Northern Ireland. This has meant homebuyers have paid no stamp duty on homes priced at £500,000 or below. The tax reduction, which will end 30th June 2021, has allowed buyers to save up to £15,000 on property purchases.

From 1st July to 30th September, the nil-rate threshold moves to £250,000. This provides a staggered return to previous stamp duty dates, which will come back into effect 1st October.

In the past few years, there have been calls to reform stamp duty. Recently, the government said it won’t permanently cut stamp duty. Additionally, there was a petition calling for stamp duty holiday to apply upon exchange of contracts instead of completion. It racked up nearly 14,000 signatures. However, the HM Treasury responded and closed the door on this.

The sector’s record-breaking performance

In recent months, there has been a home buying frenzy. The UK property market has been running red-hot, hitting record-breaking levels. Buyer demand has increased at significant levels. At the same time, supply hit an all-time low. This has caused house prices to increase substantially throughout the past 12 months.

The housing market is even on course to have its busiest year since the financial crisis, according to Zoopla. Additionally, Rightmove estimates 700,000 homes are currently going through the sales process. This is the highest number seen in the past decade. And this strong buying activity has led to a backlog of transactions, which could cause some buyers to miss out on stamp duty savings.

Millions of homebuyers making stamp duty savings

Despite delays and the large pipeline of property sales, many buyers have been able to make significant savings. More than half a million homebuyers in England are expected to benefit from the stamp duty holiday until 30th September. This equates to savings of £3.4bn, according to research by

Looking at data from Land Registry, the estate agent comparison site estimates that 539,972 transactions are forecast to complete between 8th July 2020 and 30th June 2021. Of these transactions, 84% of transactions will have no stamp duty due, providing savings of £3.2bn.

An additional 138,764 house sales are forecast to complete between the tapering period when the stamp duty free threshold drops to £250,000. GetAgent further estimates that 45% of all transactions will remain exempt from stamp duty with an additional saving of £250m.

Colby Short, founder and CEO of, comments: “The current stamp duty holiday may have its critics and there’s no doubt that it’s been a factor in creating the current market bottleneck that has seen many subject to long delays during the transaction process.

“However, there’s also no doubt that a great deal of homebuyers have benefitted and many more will continue to do so right up until the end of September. Even with the reduction of the stamp duty free threshold from July onwards, nearly half of all transactions will continue to pay no stamp duty at all, so we can expect the market madness to continue until this secondary deadline, at the very least.”

What will happen after the stamp duty holiday?

There are signs that the property market is starting to cool down. However, a return to normality will still take some time, according to Rightmove. The economy is performing better than expected, and with mortgage interest rates still at low levels, robust buyer demand could remain in place even after the stamp duty holiday deadline.

Tim Bannister, Rightmove’s director of property data, says: “Some of that demand has now been met, and the phasing out of stamp duty reliefs has also taken away some of the urgency to move, though our high traffic and search data indicate that there is still strong buyer demand.

“However, higher prices combined with a lack of fresh choice coming to market are reducing some buyers’ ability or desire to move, and while we expect the market to remain robust, there are early signs of a slackening in the incredible pace of activity that we’ve seen over the last year. This super-charged activity cannot go on forever, but we expect the market to remain vigorous for at least the remainder of the year.”

Self-certified Sophisticated Investor

Please read

I declare that I am a self-certified sophisticated investor for the purposes of the restriction on promotion of non-mainstream pooled investments. I understand that this means:

I am a self-certified sophisticated investor because at least one of the following applies:

I accept that the investments to which the promotions will relate may expose me to a significant risk of losing all of the money or other property invested. I am aware that it is open to me seek advice from someone who specialises in advising on non-mainstream pooled investments.

High Net Worth Investor

Please read

I make this statement so that I can receive promotional communications which are exempt from the restriction on promotion of non-mainstream pooled investments. The exemption relates to certified high net worth investors and I declare that I qualify as such because at least one of the following applies to me:


Sign up for first access to new developments and exclusive property investment opportunities.

We send limited and targeted emails on new launches and exclusive deals which best fit your areas. We are trusted by over 30,000 active buyers as their source for new stock.

  • New property developments
  • Professional market reports
  • Property deal alerts
  • Development updates
Manchester property investment


Receive trending news straight to your inbox and stay up to date on all of the property market trends and advice.

Established since 2005 we are a leading voice of authority and commentary on the UK property market. Our news is trusted by Apple News & Google News.

  • UK housing market
  • Mortgage & money
  • Buy-to-let landlords
  • Guides & advice

Talk to us

Speak to our UK property experts today:


+44 (0) 333 123 0320

Open from 9am-6pm GMT


+852 6699 9008

Open from 9am-6pm HKT