Political and economic uncertainty has increased in recent months. Tensions in the Middle East, shifting expectations for inflation and interest rates, and the arrival of a new prime minister have all added complications to the UK’s economic outlook.
It is at times like these that investors and homeowners turn to the housing indices for clues about the market’s direction and how wider events are affecting prices and activity.
The difficulty is that the major indices often appear to be telling different stories. In reality, they are usually measuring different parts of the market. Understanding those differences is often the key to interpreting what is really happening to house prices.
Another complication is the way the figures are reported. Monthly movements often attract the headlines, but a single month can be influenced by seasonal factors, sentiment and short-term events. Annual changes generally provide a better indication of the underlying direction of travel, while a three-month trend would arguably provide a more reliable guide than either measure in isolation.
In addition, most housing indices are reported when they are released, but the underlying data often relates to very different time periods. As a result, two indices published on the same day may be describing very different stages of the market cycle.
No single index can therefore provide a complete picture of market conditions, but once timing, methodology and reporting periods are taken into account, the picture is often far more consistent than it first appears.
The portals: the most live view of the market
The portals come at the very start of the buying and selling process, making them some of the earliest indicators of changing market conditions. Because they capture properties coming onto the market, they often reveal shifts in seller sentiment before those changes appear in lender or government datasets.
Rightmove
Rightmove’s House Price Index is based on the asking prices of newly listed homes. It is arguably the most up-to-date housing dataset available and provides a useful measure of seller sentiment because it reflects what vendors hope to achieve for their property rather than what they will ultimately receive. It means it tells us far more about the confidence and expectations of sellers than it does about buyers.
Latest figures
Release date: June 2026
Data period: 10 May–6 June
Average asking price: £376,191
Monthly change: -0.6%
Annual change: -0.5%
What the data tells us
The biggest June fall in 14 years suggests sellers are becoming more realistic about pricing. Rather than signalling falling house prices, the figures also indicate that vendors are adjusting expectations in response to softer market conditions.
Zoopla
Zoopla’s House Price Index takes a different approach. Rather than tracking asking prices, it uses sold prices, mortgage valuations and recently agreed sales to estimate achieved sale prices. It therefore provides a closer indication of what buyers are actually paying while still offering a relatively up-to-date view of market conditions, although it slightly lags Rightmove’s data.
Latest figures
Release date: June 2026
Annual house price growth: +1.4%
Sales agreed: -7%
Transaction forecast: 6–8% below 2025
North East and North West annual growth: +3.5%
What it tells us
Like Rightmove, Zoopla’s data suggests activity is cooling, but not collapsing. Buyer demand has softened and agreed sales have fallen, yet achieved prices are continuing to edge higher.
In summary
The portal figures are effectively showing the market as it stood during May and June. By this stage, the strong confidence seen at the start of the year had begun to fade. Demand had softened, sellers were becoming more realistic about pricing and uncertainty around inflation, interest rates and the wider economy was weighing on sentiment. While activity remained reasonably healthy, the mood was noticeably more cautious than it had been during January and February.
The big lenders: what buyers are actually paying
The lender indices occupy an important middle ground between the portals and the official government statistics. Both Nationwide and Halifax are based on mortgage lending and therefore reflect prices that buyers have actually paid two to three months after the sale is agreed.
Neither provides a complete picture of the market. Both exclude cash buyers and reflect only their own mortgage customers.
Nationwide
Nationwide has traditionally had stronger representation in southern England through its mortgage lending.
Latest figures
Release date: July 2026
Data period: June 2026
Average house price: £277,484
Monthly change: 0.0%
Annual change: +2.2%
What it tells us
Despite softer sentiment elsewhere, Nationwide continues to show annual house price growth and little sign of significant downward pressure on values.
Halifax
Halifax has traditionally had stronger representation in northern England and Scotland through its lending book.
Latest figures
Release date: June 2026
Data period: May 2026
Average house price: £298,806
Monthly change: -0.1%
Annual change: +0.5%
What it tells us
Although Halifax is reporting slower growth than Nationwide, it is still reporting annual growth. Taken together, the two lender indices suggest buyers remain willing to pay close to existing market values despite a weaker market backdrop.
In summary
Many of the transactions feeding into the latest figures were agreed during March, when the housing market was enjoying its strongest start to a year since 2020. Mortgage affordability had improved, borrowing costs were lower, and buyer activity was strengthening.
As March progressed, however, concerns about the Gulf conflict, inflation and future interest rates began to affect financial markets and mortgage pricing. The lender figures therefore reflect a market that was transitioning from renewed confidence towards greater uncertainty.
The official indicators: what is actually happening
Official datasets provide a different perspective again. Rather than measuring sentiment or agreed prices, they track actual activity taking place in the market. They are generally more comprehensive than portal or lender data and mostly include both mortgaged and cash purchases but can run months behind the other data sets.
Bank of England
The Bank of England’s mortgage approvals figures are one of the best leading indicators of future housing activity because they measure buyers securing finance for house purchases.
Latest figures
Release date: June 2026
Data period: May 2026
Mortgage approvals: 56,205
Previous month: 66,034
What it tells us
The fall from 66,034 approvals in April to 56,205 in May represents one of the clearest signs that buyers have become more cautious. As one of the market’s leading indicators, mortgage approvals suggest transaction activity may remain subdued in the months ahead.
HMRC
HMRC records completed residential transactions, making it one of the clearest measures of actual market activity.
Latest figures
Release date: June 2026
Data period: April 2026
Residential transactions: approximately 101,000
Monthly change: -3%
What it tells us
Transaction levels remain relatively healthy, suggesting activity is slowing rather than contracting sharply.
UK House Price Index
The UK House Price Index, compiled from Land Registry and other official data, is generally regarded as the most comprehensive measure of house prices because it includes both mortgage and cash purchases. It is, though, months behind the market.
Latest figures
Release date: June 2026
Data period: April 2026
Average UK house price: £270,000
Annual growth: +3.8%
North East annual growth: +9.9%
London annual change: -2.1%
What it tells us
The official figures confirm that prices have remained resilient nationally, although they also highlight the growing divide between stronger-performing northern markets and weaker conditions in London. The stronger annual growth figure compared with Nationwide and Halifax partly reflects the fact that the index is reporting on April transactions and includes cash purchases as well as mortgaged sales.
In summary
The official data is looking further back in time than any of the other major indices. Many of the transactions appearing in April’s HMRC and UK House Price Index figures relate to purchases that began in January and February.
At that point, confidence was recovering after the uncertainty of late 2025. Rightmove recorded its largest ever January increase in asking prices, buyer demand surged after Christmas and mortgage affordability was improving as rates fell towards their lowest levels since before the mini-Budget. That more positive backdrop helps explain why the official figures continue to show relatively strong annual growth.
So what is actually happening in the housing market right now?
In stable market conditions, the official figures are generally the most reliable guide because they are based on completed transactions and include both mortgage and cash buyers. In more uncertain markets, however, investors need to balance those slower but more comprehensive datasets with more immediate indicators.
In the current market, that means taking the broader price picture from the lenders’annual figures, but using Rightmove as the best, most up-to-date measure of current market sentiment.
Lender data suggests house prices have remained resilient despite a weaker backdrop. Nationwide reports annual growth of 2.2%, Halifax 0.5%, while the UK House Price Index shows annual growth of 3.8%. Activity has slowed, and buyers have become more cautious, but prices recorded by the lender indices continue to hold up.
Rightmove, though, shows sentiment is becoming more cautious. Sellers are more realistic about pricing as economic uncertainty, higher mortgage costs and a record number of homes for sale are weighing on confidence. Buyers are also becoming more selective and increasingly sensitive to pricing, forcing sellers to work harder to attract attention and secure a buyer.
Even that assessment, however, is already out of date. Since the data was collected, tensions in the Gulf have eased, oil prices have fallen, and expectations for future interest rates have improved markedly.
So, if you really want to stay up-to-date, you have to follow the news too.
