Rightmove is forecasting a bigger-than-usual Boxing Day Bounce this year. It is being driven by the large cohort of movers who had paused their plans during months of Budget speculation and are now planning on returning to the market, and follows similar predictions recently made by rival portal Zoopla.
The portal’s survey of more than 10,000 potential movers found that nearly one in five were waiting specifically for the outcome of November’s Budget before resuming activity. It is why Rightmove is expecting a far “bigger than usual” post-Christmas surge of activity on its platform this year. The portal also notes that many new listings are being deliberately held back for launch on or just after Boxing Day in expectation of the uplift in browsing and enquiry levels.
It shows that much of the second-half slowdown in 2025 was linked to Budget uncertainty rather than underlying market conditions. Rightmove is already reporting “very early signs of a post-Budget rebound” in some sectors, although the festive lull has delayed what would have been an even broader uptick.
London provides first clear evidence of a rebound
In London, where concerns over possible tax changes weighed most heavily on market sentiment, the number of new sellers coming to the top end of the market was 24% higher in the week after the Budget than in the week before.
Rightmove’s data also reveals a stark contrast between the first and second halves of the year. The number of new sellers coming to the market in the first half was 9% ahead of the same period in 2024, but this then reversed to 4% below 2024 in the second half, as early Budget rumours began circulating from August. Buyer demand followed a similar pattern: 3% higher year-on-year in the first half, but 6% lower in the second. Despite this, Rightmove says that the number of sales agreed across the full year remained 3% above 2024, showing that activity levels held up far better than sentiment suggested.
Varied regional picture
House prices followed a very similar pattern. The average price of property coming to the market fell by 1.8% (-£6,695) this month to £358,138, a larger fall than the ten-year December average. Average asking prices ended the year 0.6% lower than in 2024, with the strongest regional performance in the North West (+2.6%), flat growth in London (0.0%) and the largest annual decline in the South West (-2.7%).
Colleen Babcock, property expert at Rightmove, says: “The market will soon benefit from the traditional boost in home-moving activity from Boxing Day. Rightmove’s Boxing Day Bounce is an annual event where we see many begin or resume their plans to move after the distraction of Christmas.” She adds that the rumours surrounding property tax changes earlier in the year “had an impact on pricing and activity, as sellers tried to entice nervous buyers”, but expects these effects to fade as clarity improves.
Agents provide on-the-ground confirmation. Claire Reynolds, UK Head of Sales at Strutt & Parker, says the weeks of speculation leading up to the Budget “certainly cooled the property market”, especially among discretionary movers, but that the mood “shifted almost instantly once the day finally arrived”. In the Midlands, Phillip Sandbach of John German reports a “marked uptick in activity and a surge in exchanges” since the announcement, noting that the Budget “didn’t significantly impact the majority of the property market”.
Affordability improvements strengthen 2026 outlook
Rightmove believes improving affordability will help support buying activity in the early part of 2026. The average two-year fixed mortgage rate is now 4.33%, compared with 5.08% this time last year. In addition, wage growth is finally running ahead of inflation, and the relaxation of lending criteria earlier this year has already improved borrowing capacity for many households. Matt Smith, Rightmove’s mortgage expert, says home-movers will enter 2026 “looking at cheaper average mortgage rates than they were at the beginning of 2025”, which he expects to further boost confidence.
Stronger activity and modest price growth in 2026
Rightmove is therefore predicting that 2026 will look “more like the encouraging first half of this year rather than the second half”. Buyer choice remains high, affordability is improving, and economic conditions appear more stable than during the autumn period of speculation. The portal forecasts that average new-seller asking prices will rise by 2% next year, after a stronger start to the year.
Babcock concludes: “With market conditions supporting higher levels of activity, and a hopefully more certain economic environment, we forecast a better year for price growth in 2026 with a strong rebound in activity to kick start the year.”
